BTC 5m Up or Down

What is a Bitcoin 5-minute Up or Down market?

Bitcoin 5-minute Up or Down is a Polymarket market on one five-minute window. Buy Up if you expect Bitcoin to finish higher, Down if not.

Each market covers a fixed time range, and Polymarket puts that range in the title ^[1].

One example is "Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET" ^[10].

The market has two outcomes: Up and Down ^[1].

The panel on this page shows the current window and lets you trade it on Polymarket.

What one share pays

A winning share pays $1 when the market resolves. A losing share pays nothing. Share prices sit between $0 and $1 ^[7][9].

Polymarket says holders of winning tokens can redeem them for $1 each ^[7].

Losing tokens become worthless ^[7].

Every share on Polymarket is priced between $0.00 and $1.00 ^[9].

How a Bitcoin 5-minute market resolves

Up wins if Bitcoin's final Chainlink TWAP price is equal to or higher than its price at the start of the window. Otherwise Down wins ^[1].

Polymarket's rules use a time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink ^[1].

The rules compare the TWAP for the time range in the title with the price at the start of that range ^[1].

Polymarket calls the starting price the "price to beat" ^[3].

The price to beat and the final settlement price both come from the same TWAP feed ^[3].

The price source Polymarket uses

Polymarket names Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source. Prices from exchanges or other websites do not count ^[2].

The rules for each window name the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream and link to it ^[2].

The rules say the market is about that Chainlink stream, not any other source or spot market ^[2].

What is a TWAP?

A TWAP is a time-weighted average price. It averages an asset's price over a short lookback window. For these markets that window is 60 seconds.

Polymarket's documentation describes a TWAP as an asset's price across a lookback window ^[5].

On August 7, 2026, Polymarket moved crypto Up or Down markets from a single price snapshot to Chainlink TWAPs ^[3].

Since August 14, 2026, all 5-minute crypto markets use a 60-second TWAP ^[4].

Polymarket's data for this market lists the same 60-second lookback ^[6].

Read the full rules before you trade

Polymarket tells traders to read a market's resolution rules before trading ^[8].

Its documentation says the title describes the question, while the rules define how the market resolves ^[8].

The rules for each window are on that window's Polymarket event page ^[1].

When does a window open and close?

Each window runs for the 5 minutes named in its title, such as 3:30 PM to 3:35 PM Eastern Time. The next window follows it.

Polymarket's data for the September 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET market lists a start of 19:30 UTC ^[10].

The same data lists an end of 19:35 UTC ^[11].

The next market covers 3:35 PM to 3:40 PM ET ^[12].

The panel on this page shows the closing time in your own time zone, next to a countdown.

Can you trade a window before it starts?

On Polymarket, yes. Polymarket opened the 3:30 PM window for orders about a day early. This page only shows the window that is running now.

Polymarket's data shows that window accepting orders from 19:37 UTC on September 24, 2026 ^[13].

The panel on this page loads the window that contains the current time.

When that window closes, the panel moves on to the next one.

The live panel on this page

The panel shows the current window's title, a countdown to the close, the UP and DOWN prices, an implied-chance bar and a box for placing a trade.

Every price on the panel comes from Polymarket.

While a window is open, the panel refreshes its prices about every five seconds.

What are the UP and DOWN prices?

Each price is the lowest offer to sell that side on Polymarket's order book. It is what one share would cost you right now.

Polymarket's documentation says a buyer pays the ask, not the displayed midpoint ^[15].

If nobody is offering to sell a side, the panel shows no price for it.

The Buy button is switched off for that side until an offer appears.

What does the percentage bar mean?

The bar shows the market's implied chance of Up and Down. It is based on the midpoint between the best bid and the best ask.

Polymarket treats a share price as the market's implied probability ^[9].

In Polymarket's example, a $0.34 bid and a $0.40 ask give a midpoint of $0.37, or 37% ^[16].

If no midpoint is available, the panel shows a short note in place of the bar.

How is the win amount worked out?

The win amount is your stake divided by the price of your chosen side. It estimates what your shares would pay if that side wins.

For example, a $10 stake at a price of $0.50 buys 20 shares, which would pay $20.

The estimate does not subtract any Polymarket fee.

The price you actually get can also differ a little from the price shown.

What order does the Buy button place?

The Buy button places a fill-or-kill order on Polymarket: all of it fills at once, or none does. Slippage is capped at 200 basis points.

Polymarket defines fill-or-kill as an order that fills entirely and immediately, or not at all ^[17].

The panel labels each order as FOK with up to 200 bps of slippage ^[14].

You need to sign in before the panel places an order.

Polymarket fees on these markets

Polymarket charges takers a fee on crypto markets, and this market has that fee switched on ^[20].

Polymarket's fee formula is shares × fee rate × price × (1 − price) ^[18].

Only takers pay, and makers are never charged ^[18].

For crypto markets, a 100-share trade at $0.50 pays $1.75, the highest fee on the table ^[19].

The fee gets smaller as the price moves toward $0 or $1 ^[19].

Polymarket's data for this market lists a 0.07 rate that applies to takers only ^[20].