Prediction market arbitrage
Take advantage of price gaps
Buy both sides of the same event on two prediction markets for less than $1 — whichever way it settles, one side pays $1. We show the gap before fees, and whether both contracts settle the same way.
Livechecking…Opinion returned no prices this scan · Hyperliquid watched, not priced
What this scan covered
87,818
markets checked
158 of them priced answer by answer
57
profit before fees
the same event priced lower on one market than the other
11 of 11 hand-checked pairs priced
54
profit after fees
what is left once both markets take their cut
Profit across two markets
| # | Event | Both sides | Gap | After fees | Per $1,000 | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalshi2028 Republican presidential nominee — J.D. VanceKalshi PolymarketWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Polymarket | YES43¢ NO51¢ 94.3¢ → pays $1 | +5.70% | +2.70% after 3.0¢ fees | $27.76 | settles in 756 days may be stale |
| 2 | PolymarketWill Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-13?Polymarket Predict.funWill Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-17?Predict.fun | YES50¢ NO46¢ 96.0¢ → pays $1 | +4.00% | +2.25% after 1.75¢ fees | $23.05 | no close date may be stale |
| 3 | Predict.funAbstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?Predict.fun PolymarketAbstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?Polymarket | YES5¢ NO92¢ 96.8¢ → pays $1 | +3.20% | +2.56% after 0.64¢ fees | $26.22 | no close date may be stale |
| 4 | Predict.funStandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?Predict.fun PolymarketStandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?Polymarket | YES10¢ NO87¢ 97.2¢ → pays $1 | +2.80% | +1.83% after 0.97¢ fees | $18.59 | no close date may be stale |
| 5 | PolymarketWill Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?Polymarket Predict.funWill Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?Predict.fun | YES10¢ NO88¢ 97.5¢ → pays $1 | +2.50% | +1.92% after 0.58¢ fees | $19.59 | no close date may be stale |
| 6 | PolymarketWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Polymarket Predict.funWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Predict.fun | YES8¢ NO90¢ 97.6¢ → pays $1 | +2.40% | +1.92% after 0.48¢ fees | $19.62 | no close date may be stale |
| 7 | Predict.funWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Predict.fun PolymarketWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Polymarket | YES20¢ NO78¢ 97.7¢ → pays $1 | +2.30% | +1.29% after 1.01¢ fees | $13.11 | no close date may be stale |
| 8 | PolymarketWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Polymarket Kalshi2028 Republican presidential nominee — Marco RubioKalshi | YES15¢ NO83¢ 97.8¢ → pays $1 | +2.20% | +0.70% after 1.5¢ fees | $7.00 | settles in 756 days may be stale |
| 9 | PolymarketInk FDV above $250M one day after launch?Polymarket Predict.funInk FDV above $250M one day after launch?Predict.fun | YES13¢ NO85¢ 97.9¢ → pays $1 | +2.10% | +1.05% after 1.05¢ fees | $10.63 | no close date may be stale |
| 10 | PolymarketWill OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?Polymarket Predict.funWill OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?Predict.fun | YES15¢ NO83¢ 97.9¢ → pays $1 | +2.10% | +0.91% after 1.19¢ fees | $9.14 | no close date may be stale |
| 11 | PolymarketWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?Polymarket KalshiWill another country leave OPEC in 2026? — YesKalshi | YES8¢ NO90¢ 98.0¢ → pays $1 | +2.00% | +1.00% after 1.0¢ fees | $10.10 | settles in 79 days may be stale |
| 12 | PolymarketWill Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?Polymarket Predict.funWill Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?Predict.fun | YES7¢ NO91¢ 98.0¢ → pays $1 | +2.00% | +1.38% after 0.62¢ fees | $14.00 | no close date may be stale |
| 13 | PolymarketOpensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?Polymarket Predict.funOpensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?Predict.fun | YES14¢ NO84¢ 98.0¢ → pays $1 | +2.00% | +0.89% after 1.11¢ fees | $9.03 | no close date may be stale |
| 14 | PolymarketWill 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Polymarket Predict.funWill 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Predict.fun | YES66¢ NO32¢ 98.0¢ → pays $1 | +2.00% | +0.44% after 1.56¢ fees | $4.45 | no close date may be stale |
| 15 | PolymarketWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket Predict.funWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Predict.fun | YES6¢ NO92¢ 98.3¢ → pays $1 | +1.70% | +1.32% after 0.38¢ fees | $13.40 | no close date may be stale |
| 16 | Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Gavin NewsomKalshi Predict.funWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Predict.fun | YES14¢ NO84¢ 98.4¢ → pays $1 | +1.60% | +0.34% after 1.26¢ fees | $3.38 | no close date may be stale |
| 17 | PolymarketWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Jon OssoffKalshi | YES14¢ NO84¢ 98.4¢ → pays $1 | +1.60% | +0.11% after 1.49¢ fees | $1.07 | settles in 756 days may be stale |
| 18 | Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Josh ShapiroKalshi Predict.funWill Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Predict.fun | YES5¢ NO94¢ 98.5¢ → pays $1 | +1.50% | +0.38% after 1.12¢ fees | $3.85 | no close date may be stale |
| 19 | PolymarketWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket Predict.funWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Predict.fun | YES14¢ NO84¢ 98.6¢ → pays $1 | +1.40% | +0.65% after 0.75¢ fees | $6.54 | no close date may be stale |
| 20 | PolymarketWill Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?Polymarket Predict.funWill Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?Predict.fun | YES7¢ NO92¢ 98.6¢ → pays $1 | +1.40% | +0.79% after 0.61¢ fees | $7.97 | no close date may be stale |
| 21 | PolymarketWill Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Andy BeshearKalshi | YES4¢ NO95¢ 98.6¢ → pays $1 | +1.40% | +0.26% after 1.14¢ fees | $2.66 | settles in 756 days may be stale |
| 22 | Predict.funWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Predict.fun Kalshi2028 Republican presidential nominee — Marco RubioKalshi | YES16¢ NO83¢ 98.6¢ → pays $1 | +1.40% | +0.14% after 1.26¢ fees | $1.37 | no close date may be stale |
| 23 | PolymarketWill Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Mark KellyKalshi | YES3¢ NO96¢ 98.7¢ → pays $1 | +1.30% | +0.20% after 1.1¢ fees | $2.03 | settles in 756 days may be stale |
| 24 | PolymarketWill Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Polymarket Kalshi2028 Republican presidential nominee — Ron DeSantisKalshi | YES3¢ NO96¢ 98.7¢ → pays $1 | +1.30% | +0.20% after 1.1¢ fees | $1.99 | settles in 756 days may be stale |
| 25 | PolymarketWill the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?Polymarket Predict.funWill the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?Predict.fun | YES3¢ NO96¢ 98.7¢ → pays $1 | +1.30% | +1.13% after 0.17¢ fees | $11.39 | no close date may be stale |
| 26 | PolymarketWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Kamala HarrisKalshi | YES6¢ NO93¢ 98.7¢ → pays $1 | +1.30% | +0.07% after 1.23¢ fees | $0.67 | settles in 756 days may be stale |
| 27 | PolymarketMetamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?Polymarket Predict.funMetamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?Predict.fun | YES3¢ NO96¢ 98.7¢ → pays $1 | +1.30% | +1.06% after 0.24¢ fees | $10.68 | no close date may be stale |
| 28 | Predict.funWill Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?Predict.fun PolymarketWill Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?Polymarket | YES6¢ NO93¢ 98.7¢ → pays $1 | +1.30% | +0.74% after 0.56¢ fees | $7.42 | no close date may be stale |
| 29 | PolymarketWill Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Polymarket Predict.funWill Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Predict.fun | YES4¢ NO95¢ 98.8¢ → pays $1 | +1.20% | +0.99% after 0.21¢ fees | $9.96 | no close date may be stale |
| 30 | Predict.funWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Predict.fun PolymarketWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Polymarket | YES5¢ NO94¢ 98.8¢ → pays $1 | +1.20% | +0.90% after 0.3¢ fees | $9.07 | no close date may be stale |
| 31 | PolymarketInk FDV above $1B one day after launch?Polymarket Predict.funInk FDV above $1B one day after launch?Predict.fun | YES7¢ NO92¢ 98.9¢ → pays $1 | +1.10% | +0.50% after 0.6¢ fees | $4.98 | no close date may be stale |
| 32 | PolymarketWill New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?Polymarket Predict.funWill New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?Predict.fun | YES9¢ NO90¢ 98.9¢ → pays $1 | +1.10% | +0.67% after 0.43¢ fees | $6.77 | no close date may be stale |
| 33 | Predict.funWill Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026Predict.fun PolymarketWill Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026Polymarket | YES2¢ NO97¢ 99.1¢ → pays $1 | +0.90% | +0.66% after 0.24¢ fees | $6.68 | no close date may be stale |
| 34 | Predict.funWill Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?Predict.fun PolymarketWill Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?Polymarket | YES5¢ NO94¢ 99.1¢ → pays $1 | +0.90% | +0.62% after 0.28¢ fees | $6.25 | no close date may be stale |
| 35 | Predict.funWill Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?Predict.fun PolymarketWill Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?Polymarket | YES9¢ NO90¢ 99.1¢ → pays $1 | +0.90% | +0.37% after 0.53¢ fees | $3.76 | no close date may be stale |
| 36 | PolymarketGTA 6 launch postponed again?Polymarket Predict.funGTA 6 launch postponed again?Predict.fun | YES4¢ NO95¢ 99.2¢ → pays $1 | +0.80% | +0.50% after 0.3¢ fees | $5.00 | no close date may be stale |
| 37 | PolymarketTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Polymarket Predict.funTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Predict.fun | YES15¢ NO84¢ 99.2¢ → pays $1 | +0.80% | +0.02% after 0.78¢ fees | $0.24 | no close date may be stale |
| 38 | PolymarketFed emergency rate cut before 2027?Polymarket Predict.funFed emergency rate cut before 2027?Predict.fun | YES4¢ NO95¢ 99.2¢ → pays $1 | +0.80% | +0.50% after 0.3¢ fees | $5.06 | no close date may be stale |
| 39 | PolymarketWill Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket Predict.funWill Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Predict.fun | YES5¢ NO94¢ 99.3¢ → pays $1 | +0.70% | +0.40% after 0.3¢ fees | $3.99 | no close date may be stale |
| 40 | PolymarketWill Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?Polymarket Predict.funWill Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?Predict.fun | YES8¢ NO91¢ 99.3¢ → pays $1 | +0.70% | +0.32% after 0.38¢ fees | $3.21 | no close date may be stale |
| 41 | Predict.funWill Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?Predict.fun PolymarketWill Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?Polymarket | YES3¢ NO96¢ 99.3¢ → pays $1 | +0.70% | +0.52% after 0.18¢ fees | $5.24 | no close date may be stale |
| 42 | PolymarketWill Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in October?Polymarket Predict.funWill Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in October?Predict.fun | YES3¢ NO96¢ 99.4¢ → pays $1 | +0.60% | +0.29% after 0.31¢ fees | $2.94 | no close date may be stale |
| 43 | PolymarketWill Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Polymarket Predict.funWill Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Predict.fun | YES10¢ NO89¢ 99.4¢ → pays $1 | +0.60% | +0.13% after 0.47¢ fees | $1.29 | no close date may be stale |
| 44 | Predict.funWill Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?Predict.fun PolymarketWill Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?Polymarket | YES6¢ NO94¢ 99.4¢ → pays $1 | +0.60% | +0.27% after 0.33¢ fees | $2.68 | no close date may be stale |
| 45 | PolymarketOpenAI IPO before 2027?Polymarket Predict.funOpenAI IPO before 2027?Predict.fun | YES3¢ NO96¢ 99.5¢ → pays $1 | +0.50% | +0.30% after 0.2¢ fees | $3.06 | no close date may be stale |
| 46 | PolymarketWill the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?Polymarket Predict.funWill the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?Predict.fun | YES11¢ NO89¢ 99.5¢ → pays $1 | +0.50% | +0.00% after 0.5¢ fees | $0.03 | no close date may be stale |
| 47 | Predict.funWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Predict.fun PolymarketWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Polymarket | YES96¢ NO4¢ 99.5¢ → pays $1 | +0.50% | +0.24% after 0.26¢ fees | $2.42 | no close date may be stale |
| 48 | Predict.funWill the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?Predict.fun PolymarketWill the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?Polymarket | YES3¢ NO97¢ 99.5¢ → pays $1 | +0.50% | +0.34% after 0.16¢ fees | $3.42 | no close date may be stale |
| 49 | PolymarketWill Lovable be acquired before 2027?Polymarket Predict.funWill Lovable be acquired before 2027?Predict.fun | YES6¢ NO94¢ 99.6¢ → pays $1 | +0.40% | +0.08% after 0.32¢ fees | $0.76 | no close date may be stale |
| 50 | Predict.funWill Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals?Predict.fun PolymarketWill Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals?Polymarket | YES3¢ NO97¢ 99.6¢ → pays $1 | +0.40% | +0.25% after 0.15¢ fees | $2.49 | no close date may be stale |
| 51 | PolymarketWill Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?Polymarket Predict.funWill Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?Predict.fun | YES6¢ NO94¢ 99.7¢ → pays $1 | +0.30% | +0.00% after 0.3¢ fees | $0.04 | no close date may be stale |
| 52 | PolymarketWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?Polymarket Predict.funWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?Predict.fun | YES2¢ NO98¢ 99.8¢ → pays $1 | +0.20% | +0.05% after 0.15¢ fees | $0.52 | no close date may be stale |
| 53 | Predict.funWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Predict.fun PolymarketWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Polymarket | YES2¢ NO97¢ 99.8¢ → pays $1 | +0.20% | +0.15% after 0.05¢ fees | $1.53 | no close date may be stale |
| 54 | Predict.funWill Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?Predict.fun PolymarketWill Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?Polymarket | YES3¢ NO97¢ 99.8¢ → pays $1 | +0.20% | +0.05% after 0.15¢ fees | $0.49 | no close date may be stale |
Profit inside one market
Buy every answer to the same question for less than $1. One of them has to pay $1, so the rest is profit — and one rulebook settles all of them, so there is no second rulebook to disagree with.
We checked 158 complete outcome sets and none qualified. That is the usual answer. Most sets are priced at or above $1, and the ones that look far cheaper are usually missing an outcome — a list of seven candidates adding up to 28¢ is not a 72% edge, it is the price saying the winner is probably none of the seven. We do not show those.
Questions about prediction market arbitrage
What is prediction market arbitrage?
It means buying both sides of one event, on two prediction markets, for under $1 combined. One side pays $1, provided both contracts settle alike.
How do I find price gaps between prediction markets?
You find them by comparing one event's price on two prediction markets and checking both contracts settle alike. Predictmoni's board lists the gaps it finds.
Which venues does the price gap board cover?
The board compares prices on five prediction markets: Polymarket, Kalshi, Predict.fun, Limitless and Opinion. It also watches Hyperliquid, without pricing it.
Are the gaps shown before or after fees?
Both. Every gap is shown before fees, and again after fees wherever both markets' fees are known. Where one is not, the row says so.
Does Predictmoni place the arbitrage trade for me?
No. The board is read-only: it scans prediction markets for price gaps and shows what it finds. You place any trade yourself.
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