Oil & gas prediction markets

What oil and gas prediction markets are

Oil and gas prediction markets are yes-or-no contracts on energy prices. Each contract is worth $1 if you are right ^[2]. A typical Kalshi question asks whether WTI crude will settle above a set price on a given day ^[5].

The board below lists Kalshi markets on WTI crude, Brent crude, natural gas, diesel and oil rigs.

What does the price of an oil market mean?

The price is the market's estimate of the chance that yes wins. A yes contract at 30 cents implies about a 30% chance.

Kalshi says its prices track how likely traders think an event is ^[1]. In Kalshi's example, a 70-cent yes and a 30-cent no add up to $1 ^[1].

How these markets settle

Each Kalshi oil and gas series names its own price source ^[4][7][8]. If a source publishes nothing for a week, Kalshi settles on the most recent available data ^[3].

What price settles a Kalshi WTI crude market?

Kalshi's WTI markets settle on the daily settlement price of the nearest listed WTI futures contract. Kalshi lists ICE as the source.

Kalshi's WTI market for September 28, 2026 pays on the daily settlement price of the November 2026 contract ^[5]. Kalshi rolls to the next contract month two business days before the current contract's last trading day ^[5]. The series names ICE as its settlement source ^[4].

How do Brent and natural gas markets settle?

Kalshi's daily Brent and natural gas markets settle on the closing price of a one-minute candle at a stated time, such as 5 p.m. Eastern.

Kalshi's Brent and natural gas markets for September 28, 2026 both use the 5:00 p.m. EDT one-minute close ^[6][15]. Both daily series name Pyth as their price source ^[7][8]. Pyth says its feeds draw on more than 120 first-party providers, including exchanges, banks and trading firms ^[9].

Which venues list them

The oil and gas board on this page reads Kalshi. Every series it shows is a Kalshi series. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market ^[14]. Our notes on prediction market platforms explain how we read Kalshi.

What moves the price

These contracts pay on an energy price ^[3]. What moves that price moves the market.

What moves crude oil prices?

The US Energy Information Administration lists seven factors: spot prices, OPEC and non-OPEC supply, inventories, financial markets, and demand inside and outside the OECD.

EIA names these as the key factors behind crude oil prices ^[10]. EIA publishes weekly US inventory data in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report ^[11]. The main tables come out after 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesdays ^[11].

What moves natural gas prices?

EIA lists three supply factors: production, gas in storage, and imports and exports. It lists three demand factors: weather, economic growth, and other fuel prices.

EIA names these six factors ^[12]. EIA says a short-term rise in demand or drop in supply can cause large price changes, especially in winter ^[16]. EIA reports US gas in underground storage each week in its Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report ^[13].