Entertainment prediction markets

Awards, charts, releases and box office.

What entertainment prediction markets are

Entertainment prediction markets let you trade on awards, music charts, streaming charts and film reviews. Kalshi's examples include the Oscars, the Grammys, the Billboard Hot 100 and Rotten Tomatoes scores ^[1].

Kalshi is an exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a Designated Contract Market ^[2]. Its Entertainment category includes Oscar ^[3] and Netflix ranking ^[4] series. Netflix charts update on Tuesdays ^[5].

What does an entertainment contract pay?

Each contract pays $1 if your side is right. The price you pay reflects how likely traders think the outcome is.

In Kalshi's own example, a 70% chance means Yes costs 70 cents and No costs 30 cents ^[6].

How these markets settle

Every Kalshi market has its own rules, and those rules name the source that verifies the outcome ^[7]. For awards, that source is the body that gives the award.

Who decides an Oscar or Grammy market?

The award body does. Kalshi's Oscar contracts use the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, and its Grammy contracts use the Recording Academy.

The Oscar terms point to oscars.org for winners ^[8]. The Grammy terms point to grammy.com ^[9].

How does a Rotten Tomatoes market settle?

A Rotten Tomatoes market settles on the Tomatometer All Critics score for the named film, read at 10:00 AM ET on a date Kalshi sets.

Rotten Tomatoes is the source agency ^[10]. The Tomatometer is the percentage of professional critic reviews that are positive ^[11].

Which Spotify chart counts?

The chart published on the Spotify website counts. Kalshi says the charts shown in the Spotify mobile app are not used for settlement.

Kalshi also warns that US and global Spotify markets can list similar strikes with different outcomes ^[12].

Which venues list them

On this board, entertainment markets come from Kalshi only, ranked by traded volume. Each price is the Yes ask, the lowest price a seller will accept ^[13]. Our notes on prediction market platforms explain how we read Kalshi data.

What moves the price

Prices move when traders change their view of the odds ^[14].

What moves an awards market?

Public news about a nominee's chances can move the price. Kalshi adds potential nominees from trade publications like Deadline and The Hollywood Reporter.

Kalshi's Oscar terms name these sources for potential nominees ^[8].

What moves a Rotten Tomatoes market?

New critic reviews. The Tomatometer is the share of positive professional reviews, so each new review can push the score up or down.

Kalshi reads the score once, at 10:00 AM ET on the set date ^[10].

Is the price a forecast?

No. Kalshi says its price graphs show what traders believe together, not fixed probabilities. The price is what one venue charges today.

Kalshi calls its prices consensus beliefs, not absolute probabilities ^[14].

Sources (14)

Kalshi entertainment markets include the Oscars, Grammys, Billboard Hot 100 and Rotten Tomatoes scores; a Kalshi contract is worth $1 if you are right. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823766-what-are-prediction-markets (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823765-how-is-kalshi-regulated (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi lists an Oscar for Best Director series in its Entertainment category. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/OSCARDIR (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi lists a Netflix ranking series in its Entertainment category, settled on Netflix. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXNETFLIXRANK (checked 2026-09-25)
Netflix charts update on Tuesday; Kalshi Netflix markets close at 11:59 PM ET the day before. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823840-netflix-markets (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi ties the Yes price to the market's view of the odds; at 70% Yes costs 70 cents and No 30 cents. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823836-how-are-prices-determined (checked 2026-09-25)
Each Kalshi market has its own rules, including the outcome verification source. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823822-market-rules (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi Oscar contracts use the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences as source agency; winners per oscars.org; potential nominees sourced from trade publications such as Deadline and The Hollywood Reporter. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/OSCARS.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi Grammy contracts use the Recording Academy as source agency, winners per grammy.com; minimum tick $0.01. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/GRAMMY.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi Rotten Tomatoes contracts settle on the Tomatometer All Critics score for the movie on a set date at 10:00 AM ET; source agency Rotten Tomatoes. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/RT.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
The Tomatometer is the percentage of professional critic reviews that are positive. www.rottentomatoes.com/about (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi Spotify markets settle on charts published on the Spotify website, not the mobile app; US and global markets can have similar strikes but different outcomes. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823839-spotify-markets (checked 2026-09-25)
An ask is the minimum price a member is willing to sell a contract for. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823828-the-orderbook (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi price graphs change with trader confidence and public information; they are consensus beliefs, not absolute probabilities. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823830-price-graph (checked 2026-09-25)