Financials prediction markets

What financials prediction markets are

Financials prediction markets are contracts on stock index levels, company listings and similar market outcomes. This board is built from Kalshi's Financials category, including its S&P 500 range and IPO series ^[7][8].

What kinds of financials markets are there?

Examples include where the S&P 500 index trades at a set time and whether a company confirms an initial public offering by a date.

Kalshi lists both its S&P 500 range series and its IPO series under Financials ^[7][8].

Reading a price of 20 cents

A Yes price of 20 cents implies about a 20% chance of that outcome. A correct Yes contract pays $1.00 at settlement.

Kalshi says a Yes price of p cents implies about a p% probability ^[9]. An S&P 500 contract settles at $1.00 ^[6].

How these markets settle

Each contract settles on a source named in Kalshi's rules for that contract.

How does an S&P 500 market settle?

An S&P 500 market settles on the index price at the time and date the contract names. Only prices from regular market hours count.

Kalshi's rules count only prices recorded between 9:30 AM and 4 PM ET ^[1]. Kalshi itself is the named source agency, and later revisions do not change the result ^[2].

How does an IPO market settle?

A Kalshi IPO market settles Yes if the company officially confirms an IPO before the date. The listing day itself does not decide it.

An IPO counts as confirmed when the SEC declares the registration statement effective, when the IPO is priced, or when an exchange approves the listing ^[4]. The market resolves on the date of that confirmation, not the date of the IPO ^[3]. The SEC comes first in Kalshi's list of sources ^[5].

Which venues list them

Every market on this board comes from Kalshi. For its fees and quirks, see our notes on prediction market platforms.

Kalshi only on this board

The financials board is built from Kalshi's own Financials category. Other venues are not read here, so their prices do not appear.

What moves the price

What makes a financials price change?

New information moves it. Kalshi names new economic data and breaking news as things that change what a contract is worth.

Kalshi lists new economic data and breaking news stories as information that changes a contract's fair value ^[10]. When more traders expect Yes, the Yes price rises and the No price falls ^[11].

What moves an index contract?

The index itself. An S&P 500 contract pays on the index price at a set time, so its value follows where the index trades.

The contract's underlying is the S&P 500 price at the named time and date ^[2].